Even though this analysis has been written for the needs of the CIA it was not based on the documents and analyses in the national security reports of this American intelligence agency. Since this report is of such interest and importance it deserves to be published in its entirety. It reveals an insight into the development and capability of the political analytics not only of the CIA, but also of intelligence agencies of other departments of the American government in charge of foreign politics - the military, the navy and the air force. Alone with a number of other analyses this ORE 49-48 document was declassified by the CIA on July 21, 1992.